A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
